Lovely as always. What do you make of the issue of wildfire?
Some claim that nature’s state is to have occasional wildfires to keep overall fuel levels under control, while humans try too hard to not have wildfires happen at all, which makes them worse when they do happen.
Is this an example of our instinct to avoid the danger of wildfire actually making the system more fragile?
That's a fantastic point and a future essay in mind. Smokey Bear was an ecological disaster by preventing lower burning fires and resulting in what you saw in California a couple years ago!
The reference to the immune system is interesting. Indeed, it is antifragile, in a sense, because exposure to pathogens is what makes it stronger.
That said, underexposure to pathogens is thought to cause allergic rhinitis, which is not a matter of being “weak” but the immune system attacking the wrong things…
So perhaps, “stronger” is the wrong word here…exposure to pathogens makes the immune system simply more “effective.”
Bones can be made stronger and denser through exercise. The problem with osteoporosis in the elderly is they stop weighted exercise and so the body reduces the bone density.
Good one. I see trees as another example. We are surrounded by old live oaks on our property and the branches have grown sideways—seemingly unsupported. They sway and strengthen in storms and winds which are constant. The wind is good for them.
And to add more is that if you don't let it get stressed with wind they don't grow well at all! Plants in general which is why greenhouses have fans blowing across them to stimulate string plants.
The immune system metaphor is easy to carry to other situations. What do you need to know to be able to deal with the unknown? Many adverse results arise from a rigid component, sometimes one that was supposed to be flexible. Challenger disaster. Flexibility while retaining integrity. Like the earthquake proof buildings.
Yes, I agree that trauma makes us stronger. However, the path towards healing can be longer for some people, and can be accompanied by further retraumatization, which can make them even weaker temporarily. Some of them never make it on the other and stronger side, and become lost in their reaction to trauma, via drugs, depressions, or more. For those who make it on the other side, the side of hope coupled with resilience, a higher resistance to stress can be expected.
I am a big believer of antifragility. The issue with many brittle systems such as cybersecurity is the high tension of the system, and tension with respect to changes. If you designed systems that instead of notifying you of some type of event, evolved towards the elimination of that event in the future while transforming its policy, one can expect them to learn to prevent the same type of event over time while becoming stronger. There is a sense of the need of "freedom" and "space", as well as "memory", as there is no free lunch, and everything takes energy. So, for all systems that we want to make more antifragile, we need to think of the presence of a reservoir, which helps us tailor the system's response as change and transformation. It seems it is the lack of a reservoir what makes certain systems so brittle, and at the same time so easily controllable.
After being reminded of how the birthing process "jumpstarts" a baby, I realize that I started off "behind". I was born C-section and my mother didn't breastfeed (no colostrum or breastmilk). It was weird that in the late 1950's and early 1960's many mothers decided to use formula as if that was the latest and greatest thing. So glad my children got the benefits of a "jumpstart".
There's an interested corrolation between C-Section babies and negative side effects of Vaccines, especially today when you get well over a dozen. If your immune system wasn't stimulated well, the chemical stimulation can overwhelm.
In my essay on Trauma and Antifragility I found that they are trying to do things to simulate the stress on c-section babies.
"They are finding that the lack of this stress is actually not a good thing and are now culturing the mothers biome (called vaginal seeding) and increasing the compression on the baby either during delivery or in hyperbaric chambers to boost the immune response. Because the consequences are a marked increase in respiratory tract infections, obesity and the manifestations of asthma than children delivered vaginally with the risk of developing diabetes mellitus type 1 or neurological disorders that still under discussion."
I think that there are a lot of layers on that! For example, the feminine and the masculine are chaos and order which, independently, aren't antifragile. By combining them, like in a marriage, you can create an antifragile system. I explored that a bit here:
Of course, free markets and black markets are anti-fragile as is all the billions of inputs in those systems on a daily and momentary basis that presents as price signals. The balancing forces that level supply and demand are extraordinarily elastic and responsive to inputs and outputs in supply and demand daily if not more frequently.
Hence the more centralized and government supremacist a system design of statist functions, the more fragile the system is to recovery from shocks and unintended consequences.
If you look at the very arthritic and fragile platform development system of exquisite platforms and systems in the American defense complex, trillions of dollars have been expended on systems that are very fragile and will be dissolved by innovative counter-platform solutions from mature peer competitors to low level and impoverished military forces. The salvo competition is here. The Houthis have no Navy and have managed to use a suite of low cost platforms to keep US carrier forces out of the Red sea.
The Houthis don't have a navy.
Mike and I have been trying for years to sneak the seed of anti-fragility into the military industrial complex and by extension the military actual to step beyond the hardening/resilience paradigm.
Ain't happening for a very simple reason: bureaucratic ecologies cannot survive robust anti-fragile force[s] either used within their structures or weaponized against them. Bureaucracy is the primary building block of state power hence anti-fragility is to the state what the crucifix is to the vampire.
Antifragile is fixed premises and assumptions and variable results - it's a lot harder to scale a system that isn't consistent.
Fragile is variable premises and assumptions and fixed results - shoving everything into a box in order to make it work.
Right. Antifragile is hard! But if we look for opportunities we can make things less fragile.
Lovely as always. What do you make of the issue of wildfire?
Some claim that nature’s state is to have occasional wildfires to keep overall fuel levels under control, while humans try too hard to not have wildfires happen at all, which makes them worse when they do happen.
Is this an example of our instinct to avoid the danger of wildfire actually making the system more fragile?
That's a fantastic point and a future essay in mind. Smokey Bear was an ecological disaster by preventing lower burning fires and resulting in what you saw in California a couple years ago!
Would love to see your essay on this! I do live in a WUI (wildlife Urban Interface) in California so it is a big deal for sure!
The reference to the immune system is interesting. Indeed, it is antifragile, in a sense, because exposure to pathogens is what makes it stronger.
That said, underexposure to pathogens is thought to cause allergic rhinitis, which is not a matter of being “weak” but the immune system attacking the wrong things…
So perhaps, “stronger” is the wrong word here…exposure to pathogens makes the immune system simply more “effective.”
Absolutely true. The immune system can certainly get out of whack too.
Michael, what do you think about bones being antifragile? They go through trauma and come out stronger on the other side.
Bones can be made stronger and denser through exercise. The problem with osteoporosis in the elderly is they stop weighted exercise and so the body reduces the bone density.
Good one. I see trees as another example. We are surrounded by old live oaks on our property and the branches have grown sideways—seemingly unsupported. They sway and strengthen in storms and winds which are constant. The wind is good for them.
And to add more is that if you don't let it get stressed with wind they don't grow well at all! Plants in general which is why greenhouses have fans blowing across them to stimulate string plants.
That's a great example! I like that one a lot.
The immune system metaphor is easy to carry to other situations. What do you need to know to be able to deal with the unknown? Many adverse results arise from a rigid component, sometimes one that was supposed to be flexible. Challenger disaster. Flexibility while retaining integrity. Like the earthquake proof buildings.
Very good point. Too often we try to force hardened protection when we need it to be flexible.
Yes, I agree that trauma makes us stronger. However, the path towards healing can be longer for some people, and can be accompanied by further retraumatization, which can make them even weaker temporarily. Some of them never make it on the other and stronger side, and become lost in their reaction to trauma, via drugs, depressions, or more. For those who make it on the other side, the side of hope coupled with resilience, a higher resistance to stress can be expected.
I am a big believer of antifragility. The issue with many brittle systems such as cybersecurity is the high tension of the system, and tension with respect to changes. If you designed systems that instead of notifying you of some type of event, evolved towards the elimination of that event in the future while transforming its policy, one can expect them to learn to prevent the same type of event over time while becoming stronger. There is a sense of the need of "freedom" and "space", as well as "memory", as there is no free lunch, and everything takes energy. So, for all systems that we want to make more antifragile, we need to think of the presence of a reservoir, which helps us tailor the system's response as change and transformation. It seems it is the lack of a reservoir what makes certain systems so brittle, and at the same time so easily controllable.
Interesting read. Thank you for your thoughts.
Yes you are right. There is a vulnerability. But if we know it we can help.
Cyber security is a perfect example of a highly fragile system. Imagine if we designed security akin to an immune system!
After being reminded of how the birthing process "jumpstarts" a baby, I realize that I started off "behind". I was born C-section and my mother didn't breastfeed (no colostrum or breastmilk). It was weird that in the late 1950's and early 1960's many mothers decided to use formula as if that was the latest and greatest thing. So glad my children got the benefits of a "jumpstart".
There's an interested corrolation between C-Section babies and negative side effects of Vaccines, especially today when you get well over a dozen. If your immune system wasn't stimulated well, the chemical stimulation can overwhelm.
In my essay on Trauma and Antifragility I found that they are trying to do things to simulate the stress on c-section babies.
https://www.polymathicbeing.com/p/trauma-and-antifragility
"They are finding that the lack of this stress is actually not a good thing and are now culturing the mothers biome (called vaginal seeding) and increasing the compression on the baby either during delivery or in hyperbaric chambers to boost the immune response. Because the consequences are a marked increase in respiratory tract infections, obesity and the manifestations of asthma than children delivered vaginally with the risk of developing diabetes mellitus type 1 or neurological disorders that still under discussion."
I wonder if marriage can be anti-fragile, for those who want to avoid divorces.
This topic feels like a "contemporary-stoic" type of teaching. Looking forward to exploring more on this topic.
I think that there are a lot of layers on that! For example, the feminine and the masculine are chaos and order which, independently, aren't antifragile. By combining them, like in a marriage, you can create an antifragile system. I explored that a bit here:
https://www.polymathicbeing.com/p/chaos-and-order
Of course, free markets and black markets are anti-fragile as is all the billions of inputs in those systems on a daily and momentary basis that presents as price signals. The balancing forces that level supply and demand are extraordinarily elastic and responsive to inputs and outputs in supply and demand daily if not more frequently.
Hence the more centralized and government supremacist a system design of statist functions, the more fragile the system is to recovery from shocks and unintended consequences.
If you look at the very arthritic and fragile platform development system of exquisite platforms and systems in the American defense complex, trillions of dollars have been expended on systems that are very fragile and will be dissolved by innovative counter-platform solutions from mature peer competitors to low level and impoverished military forces. The salvo competition is here. The Houthis have no Navy and have managed to use a suite of low cost platforms to keep US carrier forces out of the Red sea.
The Houthis don't have a navy.
Mike and I have been trying for years to sneak the seed of anti-fragility into the military industrial complex and by extension the military actual to step beyond the hardening/resilience paradigm.
Ain't happening for a very simple reason: bureaucratic ecologies cannot survive robust anti-fragile force[s] either used within their structures or weaponized against them. Bureaucracy is the primary building block of state power hence anti-fragility is to the state what the crucifix is to the vampire.
And close to your heart, Insurgency is antifragile which is why it won in Afganistan and Iraq.